In the first quarter of 2017, 60 percent of the houses were affordable. Most of them availed 30–year conventional mortgage scheme and secured good credit score. DC Fawcett Virtual Real Estate Investing club
Affordability factor
Three factors to check whether a home is affordable or not
- Median home price nationwide
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates
- Median household monthly income
An affordable home is a property whose debt-to-income ratio is 28 percent or less than median household monthly income. If you are planning to invest on a real estate investment property, it’s not the right time and you need to procrastinate. Low mortgage rate and affordability factor may not last for a long time.
When you are about to purchase the property, the prices would have become historically high. FHA loans require only 3.5 percent down payment, but there are new loan programs offer financing. Getting a pre-approval before the rise of mortgage rate is a good idea.
Purchasing a property is a challenge for millennials. If the home price goes up along with mortgage rate, it creates a negative impact on housing market. The demands are reduced whereas supply increases.
At one point of time, the home prices come to a standstill when rates are fluctuating. The homes price will not increase after a point of time when mortgage rate keeps on increasing. 5.5 million Homes were sold in 2016 making one of the best years in home sales.
The “5” forces in 2017 housing market
- FHA mortgage insurance
- Rising mortgage rates
- first-time home buyers
- Low inventory
- High prices
October 2016 witnessed highest hike in the property value. Seattle, Portland, Oregon and Denver were few cities experienced the inflation.
The home-buyers either couldn’t afford to pay down payment or qualify for a mortgage which in turn reduced the percentage of affordable homes available for sale. With more buyers entering the market, there is a bidding war for homes with more demand and less supply.
Millennials prefer rental homes over home ownership as prices have inflated. 40 percent of the home buyers are millennials.
Different stages of Real estate bubble
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PHASE I: RECOVERY
Characteristics of a recession: high unemployment rate; decreased investment, price of land is at its lowest point. With increase in population, the demand for homes increases.
We see a vast increase in vacancy rate across all types of real estate – office, retail, residential. This is happening due to investors opting for already vacant homes for the commercial and office space purpose rather than searching for new location. Already vacant homes charge less than new development.
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PHASE II: EXPANSION
The phase changes to expansion when the market witnesses a change in the housing trend. The change is when most of the properties are occupied; vacancy rate must be historically low or nil. When supply meets the demand or there is an excessive demand for properties.
There must be scarcity for new homes. The profit is the key factor for developing new properties on the vacant land or rehabbing the existing properties.
Adding a new inventory to the real estate market is not a cakewalk. We all know the process of constructing a property is a lengthy formality.
Negotiation of land sales, permission and approval for zoning regulations, financing has to be sanctioned. Building a home takes a lot of time which depends on location, builder and other factors. By the time it is up for property listing, the phase II is already in the process. Along with that occupancy rate and rent would have increased.
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PHASE III: HYPER SUPPLY
When the occupancy rate exceeds long-term average, there would be pressure on the rent. The first hindrance point in the real estate cycle is increase in unsold inventory. Growth rate is decelerating.
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PHASE IV: RECESSION
The second hindrance point in the real estate cycle is transition from hyper supply to recession. The surplus inventory leads to lower occupancy and low rent which reduces the revenue for landowners.
The Third hindrance point in real estate cycle is increase in rate of interest. Though there are shortcomings, there is a drastic increase in borrowing cost. Lower occupancy and low rent is a buyer’s market.
The downturn in real estate trend has huge impact on the local economy. Recession is an unexpected event. The expansion phase occurs now and then and investors get to enjoy the benefits of home ownership.
Conclusion:
From the review, we infer the different phase of housing bubble. To prevent from real estate scams, visit DC Fawcett virtual real estate investing club where DC Fawcett has explained about the investment properties, pros and cons, tips for beginners. His articles have been read widely by all aspiring investors.